Complete Last-Minute Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards will be handed out in a few hours but, as far as I'm concerned, several of the big awards are still up for grabs. I feel compelled to get my predictions down in print before the big day, but, more than in years past, I think we could be in for a few surprises. At least I hope we are—something needs to juice up the potentially deadening broadcast.

For me, one of the biggest questions is who will win the Best Actress Oscar. For months I thought Meryl Streep had a lock on that prize, and I’m still predicting that she’ll take it, but the buzz on Viola Davis has been building by the day and she may just pull it off. Of course, in my insanely early predictions, Streep and Davis were the only women on my list who even got nominated. Last fall, I was still operating under the crazy assumption that Emma Stone (remember her?) was the “star” of “The Help” and I also thought there’d be some Oscar love for Kirsten Dunst and Helen Mirren, fool that I was. Let's not even get into other worthy candidates like Tilda Swinton, Anna Paquin, Elizabeth Olsen, and Vera Farmiga.

But I'll shut up already about the people I thought SHOULD have been nominated (cough-Albert Brooks-cough). Now that total gridlock on Hollywood Boulevard has begun, limousines are being scrubbed, and Wolfgang Puck's sous-chefs are working overtime, let’s just get on with it and assess who the Academy will choose from their list of nominees.

I could be way off with my predictions of a great night for “Hugo” but I definitely think there will be a lot of Veuve Clicquot corks popping in France as the news starts coming in about “The Artist.”

Best Picture 
Likely Winner: “The Artist” 
Possible Spoiler: “The Descendants” 
Worthy Long Shot: “Midnight in Paris” 

Best Actress
Likely Winner: Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Possible Spoiler: Viola Davis, “The Help”
Worthy Long Shot: Michelle Williams, “My Week with Marilyn”

Best Actor
Likely Winner: Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Possible Spoiler: George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Worthy Long Shot: Demián Bichir, “A Better Life”

Best Supporting Actress
Likely Winner: Octavia Spencer, “The Help”
Possible Spoiler: Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Worthy Long Shot: Bérénice Bejo, “The Artist”

Best Supporting Actor
Likely Winner: Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Possible Spoiler: Kenneth Branagh, “My Week with Marilyn”
Worthy Long Shot: Nick Nolte, “Warrior”

Best Director
Likely Winner: Michael Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Possible Spoiler: Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”
Worthy Long Shot: Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Likely Winner: “The Descendants,” Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash
Possible Spoiler: “Hugo,” John Logan
Worthy Long Shot: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Likely Winner: “Midnight in Paris,” Woody Allen
Possible Spoiler: “Margin Call,” J.C. Chandor
Worthy Long Shot: “Bridesmaids,” Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig

Cinematography
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Robert Richardson
Possible Spoiler: “War Horse,” Janusz Kaminski
Worthy Long Shot: “The Tree of Life,” Emmanuel Lubezki

Art Direction
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo
Possible Spoiler: “The Artist,” Laurence Bennett and Robert Gould
Worthy Long Shot: “Midnight in Paris,” Anne Siebel, Hélène Dubreuil

Visual Effects
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman, and Alex Henning
Possible Spoiler: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2,” Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, and John Richardson
Worthy Long Shot: “Rise of the Planet of the Apes,” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, and Daniel Barrett

Film Editing
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Thelma Schoonmaker
Possible Spoiler: “The Artist,” Anne-Sophie Bion and Michael Hazanavicius
Worthy Long Shot: “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo,” Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall

Sound Editing
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
Possible Spoiler: “Drive,” Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
Worthy Long Shot: “War Horse,” Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom

Sound Mixing
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Tom Fleischman and John Midgely
Possible Spoiler: “War Horse,” Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, and Stuart Wilson
Worthy Long Shot: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, and Bo Persson

Music (Original Score)
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Howard Shore
Possible Spoiler: “The Artist,” Ludovic Bource
Worthy Long Shot: “War Horse,” John Williams

Original Song
Likely Winner: “Man or Muppet,” Bret McKenzie
Possible (and only!) Spoiler: “Real in Rio,” Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett

Make-up
Likely Winner: “The Iron Lady,” Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
Possible Spoiler: “Albert Nobbs,” Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston, and Matthew W. Mungle
Worthy Long Shot: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2,” Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, and Lisa Tomblin

Costume Design
Likely Winner: “Hugo,” Sandy Powell
Possible Spoiler: “The Artist,” Mark Bridges
Worthy Long Shot: “Jane Eyre,” Michael O’Connor

Foreign Language Film
Likely Winner: “A Separation,” Iran
Possible Spoiler: “In Darkness,” Poland
Worthy Long Shot: “Bullhead,” Belgium

Animated Feature Film
Likely Winner: “Rango”
Possible Spoiler: “Puss in Boots”

Documentary (Feature)
Likely Winner: “Hell and Back Again,” Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
Possible Spoiler: “Undefeated,” TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay, and Richard Middlemas
Worthy Long Shot: “Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory,” Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky

Documentary (Short Subject)
Likely Winner: “Saving Face,” Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
Possible Spoiler: “The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement,” Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
Worthy Long Shot: “Incident in New Baghdad,” James Spione

Short Film (Animated)
Likely Winner: “La Luna,” Enrico Casarosa
Possible Spoiler: “Dimanche/Sunday,” Patrick Doyon

Short Film (Live Action)
Likely Winner: “Tuba Atlantic,” Hallvar Witzo
Possible Spoiler: “The Shore,” Terry George and Oorlagh George

And there you have it. Am I a good predictor of Academy tastes or simply a blithering idiot? Um...don't answer that! Or at least wait until after tonight's show! I'll be live-blogging the Oscars telecast over at MSN Movies with fellow Hitlist writer, Kate Erbland. Click here starting at 4 pm PST to join in the fun!

Comments

[Kimberley]

Good to see you've picked Man or Muppet to win best song - we here in Bret's hometown Wellington are waiting in great anticipation to see if he's won...

[Laurie J]

Excellent predictions Danny! Loved your live-blogging. It was funny and insightful. Nick Nolte did look 100 years old--what a shock!

[Laurie J]

Oh, and even though I wanted Viola Davis to win so badly, Meryl Streep's speech was breathtaking. I teared up.

[Sheila Linderman]

Danny, please buy me a lottery ticket!

[[email protected]]

Dear Danny,

"Juice up the potentially deadening broadcast ?" Well, my friend, it looks like you got your wish. We got to witness fat jokes, penis jokes, extremely lame banter between presenters, that was supposed to be amusing, but came off as silly, stupid, annoying, or just plain vulgar. Then, there was Angelina Jolie, looking like a cheap hooker, all 98 pounds of her. And, 9 pounds of that was her lips.

I thought that the Academy should have paid special tribute to Dame Elizabeth Taylor, for her life's work in film, as well as for her tireless charitable work, leading the way, fighting AIDS and HIV, and making it a popular cause.

The stage set was beautiful, but the theater looked as if it sat only a few hundred people.

Most gorgeous woman ? Glenn Close
Most gorgeous man ? Jean Dujardin
Candidate for cinematic sainthood ? Miss Meryl Streep

Great that we didn't have to sit through numbing performances by Randy Newman, etc, of 5 or 6 absolutely forgettable songs from last year's films.

Wonderful that, for a change, the presenters were obviously coached on how to open an envelope, quickly and easily, and read the name of the winner, as fast as possible.

I loved the Ellen commercials for JC Penney.

But, all together, it was Billy Crystal (even though he was not quite as entertaining as usual), who saved an, otherwise, low brow, amateurish show.

So, if this year's Oscars was an example of "juicing up the show," I have to say that I'm not in favor. I prefer my Oscars presentation to be a high class, elegant program, unlike 99% of the rest of what's thrown at us from the TV screen.

Great predictions, Danny !

Thanks,
Gordon

[Orrin Konheim]

Has anyone ever suggested your blog is anti-semitic with the title "Jew Eat Yet?"

Any way, my Oscar reactions are attached.

[Reylan]

Good job for Adele for winning several Grammy trophies.